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خلاصه مقاله، نویسندگان و کلمات کلیدی

Linkages Between Local Knowledge Drought Forecasting Indicators And Scientific Drought Forecasting Parameters In The Limpopo River Basin In Southern Africa


مقاله: آزمایش فعال سیستم با وقفه

نويسند‌گان:


خلاصه مقاله:


This article aims at evaluating linkages between selected local traditional knowledge (LTK) indicators with meteorological drought forecasting parameters in the Mzingwane catchment area of Zimbabwe. In addition, the article investigates possible ways of integrating selected LTK indicators with the meteorological drought forecasting parameters to improve applicability of meteorological drought forecasts at local level.LTK forecast data from trees and plants for 2012/2013 season was collected through structured questionnaires administered on 40 household heads. Monthly rainfall data spanning the period September 1999–May 2013 (14 years) were used for the calculation of Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for the study catchment. The trends in drought severity scale were then compared to the results from local traditional knowledge drought forecasting (LTKDF) to find out the degree to which they could be correlated. The GEONETCast ten day composite, SPOT VEGETATION, normalized difference vegetation index (S10 NDVI) dataset with a 1km resolution was used to evaluate vegetation condition and hence track drought occurrence and severity. The trends in drought severity scale from NDVI were then compared to the results from LTKDF to establish the level of correlation. The analyses carried out shows a good correlation between traditional plant and tree indicators with resulting conditions captured as NDVI and SPI. The challenge on the LKDF systems, however, was lack of historical data to ensure adequate analysis and comparison with meteorological data. The study therefore recommends continuous monitoring and standardisation of LTK data.


 


كلمات كليدي:

Limpopo River Basin , Local traditional knowledge , Natural disaster , Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, Drought forecasting, Limpopo River Basin, Local traditional knowledge, Natural disaster, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index
حوضه رودخانه لیم پوپو , دانش سنتی محلی , بلایای طبیعی , شاخص پوشش گیاهی تفاوت Normalised , | حوضه رود لیم پوپو, دانش سنتی محلی, بلایای طبیعی, تفاوت Normalised صفحه اول پوشش گیاهی, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index


موضوعات:

Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology, Geology, Safety Research



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فهرست مقالات مرتبط و مشابه

  1. Chisadza, Bright, J. Tumbare, Michael, R. Nyabeze, Washington, Nhapi, Innocent (2014) 'Validation of local knowledge drought forecasting systems in the Limpopo River Basin in Southern Africa', Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, Emerald, pp:551-566
  2. Trambauer, P., Werner, M., Winsemius, H. C., Maskey, S., Dutra, E., Uhlenbrook, S. (2015) 'Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa', Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., Copernicus GmbH, pp:1695-1711
  3. Trambauer, P., Werner, M., Winsemius, H. C., Maskey, S., Dutra, E., Uhlenbrook, S. (2014) 'Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo river basin, Southern Africa', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Copernicus GmbH, pp:9961-10000
  4. Trambauer, P., Maskey, S., Werner, M., Pappenberger, F., van Beek, L. P. H., Uhlenbrook, S. (2014) 'Identification and simulation of space-time variability of past hydrological drought events in the Limpopo river basin, Southern Africa', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Copernicus GmbH, pp:2639-2677
  5. Trambauer, P., Maskey, S., Werner, M., Pappenberger, F., van Beek, L. P. H., Uhlenbrook, S. (2014) 'Identification and simulation of space–time variability of past hydrological drought events in the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa', Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., Copernicus GmbH, pp:2925-2942
  6. Ren, Weinan, Wang, Yixuan, Li, Jianzhu, Feng, Ping, Smith, Ronald J. (2016) 'Drought forecasting in Luanhe River basin involving climatic indices', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Springer Nature, pp:0-0
  7. Legesse Gebre, Sintayehu, Getahun, Yitea Sineshaw (2016) 'Analysis of Climate Variability and Drought Frequency Events on Limpopo River Basin, South Africa', Journal of Waste Water Treatment & Analysis, OMICS Publishing Group, pp:0-0
  8. Wetterhall, F., Winsemius, H. C., Dutra, E., Werner, M., Pappenberger, E. (2015) 'Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin', Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., Copernicus GmbH, pp:2577-2586
  9. Wetterhall, F., Winsemius, H. C., Dutra, E., Werner, M., Pappenberger, F. (2014) 'Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Copernicus GmbH, pp:861-888
  10. , (2015) 'Linkages between hydrological drought, climate indices and human activities: a case study in the Columbia River basin', International Journal of Climatology, Wiley-Blackwell, pp:280-290

 

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